AGP Executive Report

Iran War Fallout on Jobs & Life at Sea: US Navy families say USS Lincoln’s long Iran deployment is harming sailors’ mental health and living conditions, with complaints about exhaustion, food/water issues, safety and disrupted mail. Labor Market Slowdown: US employers cut 23,000 jobs in July; unemployment fell to 4.1% mainly because people left the labor force, while job openings and hiring indicators stalled—an HR headache for hiring plans. Persian Gulf Shipping Crisis: Hundreds of cargo ships remain stuck in the Strait of Hormuz; seafarers report unpaid wages and shortages of food, water and medicine. Yemen Escalation: Yemen’s army launched operations against Houthi positions after attacks on government forces; UN warns of renewed large-scale conflict. Regional Security Deal: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed the “Makkah Joint Defense Agreement,” with an attack-on-one clause—sparking debate in Iran about whether it’s “paper” security. Hiring & Skills Signals: Global tech layoffs topped 1.63 lakh in 2026, with AI cited in many cuts, including in Israel. Syria Recovery Funding: World Bank approved a $100m grant to modernize Syria’s financial sector, aiming to support safer payments and private-sector growth.

Middle East Hiring & Jobs Signals: The U.S. jobs shock is rippling into global hiring expectations, with employers cutting 23,000 jobs in July and revisions trimming May/June by 103,000—fueling hopes the Fed can pause rate hikes, which often affects hiring budgets across the region’s finance and services sectors. Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Oil and shipping markets are still on edge as Iran-Oman talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz face uncertainty, while reports say any deal could exclude U.S. and Israeli vessels and impose penalties—keeping logistics and energy employers cautious. Gulf Security Impact on Workforces: ADNOC says attacks targeted 15 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting operations and injuring staff—another reminder that maritime instability can quickly hit jobs tied to shipping, ports, and energy supply chains. Iraq Anti-Corruption & Employment Risk: Iraqi authorities arrested eight in a Dhi Qar corruption raid tied to public-funds damage, including municipal and registration-linked staff—raising compliance and HR scrutiny for government-adjacent roles. Worker Protection: An abused OFW from Negros Occidental is being repatriated after alleged mistreatment in Saudi Arabia, highlighting ongoing risks for domestic workers and the need for stronger employer accountability. AI Talent & Education: Two Israeli universities (Technion and Tel Aviv University) ranked in the top 30 for AI talent production, pointing to continued demand for AI skills and related graduate hiring. Data Ethics in Aid Tech: WFP’s continued use of Palantir is under renewed scrutiny after leaked audit concerns—likely to affect how humanitarian employers handle data governance and HR training.

Strait of Hormuz & hiring ripple: Markets stayed jittery as Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz reopening faced “fishhooks,” keeping oil risk elevated and feeding uncertainty ahead of US nonfarm payrolls—an indirect pressure point for hiring and wages across the region. Public-sector pay crunch (Iraq): Iraq’s delayed salaries for state employees stretched into a fifth week, hitting household spending and slowing market activity as oil revenue and exports take a hit. Shipping costs hit jobs (South Africa): South Africa’s citrus export supply chain felt the Middle East conflict hardest, with shipping costs tripling and export forecasts trimmed—raising pressure on logistics and seasonal work. Defense/Interior leadership (Iraq): Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said defense and interior posts remain acting for now, with selection standards set but names pending, as the government prioritizes the financial crisis and regional calm. Pilot hiring (Gulf-linked aviation): Akasa Air plans to hire 500+ pilots over three years to expand fleet deliveries—an example of aviation hiring continuing despite regional turbulence. Lebanon destruction: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon included artillery and demolition operations, with reports of injuries and damage that can disrupt local livelihoods and employment. Job-market signal (US): Ahead of the jobs report, expectations pointed to modest hiring gains but stagnant wages—important context for job seekers watching regional labor demand.

Strait of Hormuz Talks & Oil Pressure: Iran says it’s close to an Iran-Oman shipping framework for the Strait of Hormuz, but warns safe passage won’t be guaranteed while a US blockade remains—keeping crude prices elevated and adding uncertainty for hiring and costs across the region. Red Sea Escalation: Houthis launched “large-scale” missile and drone attacks on Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, killing dozens and raising fears of a wider conflict that can disrupt trade routes and jobs. Mossad Shake-Up: Israel’s new Mossad chief Roman Gofman reportedly removed two senior officials tied to a failed Iran regime-change plan, signaling continued pressure in the Iran file. Employment Signals (Egypt): Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in Q2 2026, with fewer unemployed people than the prior quarter—an encouraging datapoint for job seekers. Skills & Employability (MENA): Starbucks’ EmpowerME initiative trained over 1,000 orphans across the MENA region with mentorship and innovation skills aimed at boosting career readiness. Labor Market (US): US layoffs hit a two-year low in July, while AI remained a top driver of job cuts—good news for stability, but a reminder that roles are still shifting.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: Iran says a deal with Oman to reopen Strait of Hormuz is “on the verge” after agreeing shipping coordinates, while investors watch for whether Iran controls inbound traffic—fueling market swings and renewed hiring sentiment. Middle East Jobs & Hiring: A report on the Philippines labor market highlights how fresh graduates are struggling to get absorbed into employment as unemployment rises, a reminder for regional employers to tighten graduate pipelines and onboarding. Tourism Outlook: WTTC warns the Middle East travel and tourism sector will shrink in 2026 due to geopolitical disruptions, but forecasts a fast rebound through 2036 led by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Qatar—good news for hospitality hiring later. Lebanon Frontline: AP reports Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon after alleged ceasefire violations, with two Israeli soldiers killed—raising uncertainty for cross-border work and staffing in affected areas. Workplace & Rights: Reform UK’s “Deliveroo Law” proposal targets bosses employing illegal migrants with fines or prison, spotlighting compliance-driven hiring risks across the region. Energy Jobs Signal: Türkiye’s Gabar oil output hits a record 83,300 barrels per day, tied to improved security—supporting downstream employment demand.

Strait of Hormuz Deal Talks: Iran and Oman say they’ve agreed a route to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. says a deal could be finalized this week—markets are reacting, but the terms still look temporary and politically fraught. Gaza Peace Plan Friction: Israel is tightening strike approvals and signaling it will give Trump’s “Hamas disarmament” plan a chance, even as Netanyahu rejects key withdrawal conditions—keeping uncertainty high for regional stability. Hiring Watch (US): U.S. job openings slipped to 7.36 million in June, with the labor market still resilient despite the Iran-war shock—useful context for job seekers tracking demand. Layoffs in Tech & Finance: Visa cut about 2,600 jobs including senior roles in California, and EA’s ownership shift to Saudi PIF is followed by leadership changes—both point to ongoing restructuring risk. Labor Rights (Turkey): H&M and Inditex face union-busting claims tied to supplier closures that shed thousands of jobs. Worker Exploitation (Burundi): Burundi warns recruitment agencies and overseas placements in the Gulf can trap workers and enable abuse. Cybersecurity (US-Iran): Iranian-linked hackers are under scrutiny after attacks on U.S. water systems, raising concerns for critical infrastructure safety.

Gaza Negotiations: Israel’s Netanyahu denies agreeing to a US-backed Gaza plan, saying it was a draft he rejected and that any withdrawal won’t happen until Hamas is fully disarmed, as internal coalition pressure grows. Middle East Security & Jobs: Houthis claim fresh attacks on Saudi shipping and Najran Airport, underscoring ongoing disruption risk for regional employers and workers. Labour Market Pressure (UK): UK services firms cut jobs for the 22nd straight month, even as activity returns to growth, highlighting hiring caution that jobseekers should expect. AI & Work Risk (World Bank): A new World Bank report warns AI job displacement risk is over three times higher in high-income countries, with knock-on effects for white-collar hiring. Hiring & Compliance (UAE): UAE corporate card and e-invoicing shifts are pushing SMEs toward spend automation and tighter compliance—creating demand for finance ops and HR-adjacent admin roles. Saudi Employment Programs: Riyadh Air launches employment-linked aviation scholarship programmes, adding new talent pipelines for airline and aviation careers. OFW Support (Saudi): A Saudi-based OFW accused of abuse has escaped and is under embassy care pending repatriation, spotlighting worker protection and HR due diligence. Tourism & Skills (Egypt): Egypt’s Rashid port upgrades are expected to create thousands of jobs across logistics and fisheries services.

Hormuz Diplomacy & Markets: Qatar says mediators are making progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while US Treasury chief Scott Bessent says a deal could come “today or tomorrow,” helping push oil lower and stocks to record highs. Shipping & Work Risks: Despite talks, thousands of sailors remain stranded as attacks and slow passage keep trade disruption high, raising job and safety concerns across maritime roles. Gaza Negotiations: Netanyahu says Israel won’t withdraw from current Gaza lines until Hamas is fully disarmed, adding uncertainty for any near-term stabilization that affects regional hiring. Syria Jobs Push: Syria’s tourism revival is drawing visitors again, but guides warn security, flights, and services still limit steady work. IMF Recovery Plan: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating and approved technical assistance, stressing the need for productive employment and better public services. Humanitarian Hiring Impact: Afghanistan’s hunger crisis is worsening as aid falls far short of needs, with children hit hardest—an ongoing drag on education and future workforce readiness. Workforce & Migration: Saudi Arabia is reported to be easing iqama rules for Bangladeshi workers, while Kuwait moves to terminate services for workers over 70, affecting older job seekers. Modern Work & Identity: A US Supreme Court decision keeps a major judgment against Palestinian officials in play, while a separate report highlights how medical diagnoses can decide military careers—both signals of how policy can reshape employment access.

UAE Employment Visas: UAE introduces a police clearance requirement for Ghanaians seeking employment visas, tightening entry rules for job seekers. UAE Holidays: UAE confirms two remaining public holidays for 2026, with Prophet Muhammad’s birthday expected on Aug 25 or 26 (moon sighting dependent) and Eid Al Etihad potentially creating long weekends. Regional Investment Push: Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy meets the Arab Women Investors Union to boost regional investment and sustainable development ahead of the 29th Arab-African summit. Banking Deal: Emirates NBD to acquire HSBC Egypt’s retail banking business, expanding its Egypt footprint. Cloud & AI Hiring Demand: Huawei Cloud appoints Redington as its Indonesia distributor to accelerate cloud and AI adoption. Oil & Jobs Pressure: Middle East tensions keep lifting gold and oil volatility; investors watch US jobs data for rate signals. Energy Projects: L&T Energy Hydrocarbon Offshore wins an ultra-mega order from ADNOC Offshore worth over Rs 15,000 crore, supporting large-scale offshore EPCIC work. Workplace Trends (UAE): Study finds 8 in 10 UAE workers take on extra work; AI use is rising but risks “workload creep.”

Middle East Jobs & HR: UAE launches a job seeker visa for graduates to search for work without a sponsor, with eligibility requirements listed by authorities. Hiring & Workforce Tech: Deel expands hiring and workforce identity tools with deepfake detection after acquiring Clarity, aiming to reduce fraud in recruitment. Tourism & Skills Pipelines: Qatar’s Hayya platform wins a Stevie Award for government tech innovation, highlighting faster e-visa processing for visitors and event access. Saudi’s Pilgrim Experience Programme reports 2025 gains, with 19.5m arrivals and high satisfaction scores—useful for employers planning seasonal staffing. Regional Economy Signals: Markets rally as Iran de-escalation hopes push oil lower and ease inflation pressure, while US manufacturing growth stays strong—watch for knock-on effects on Middle East hiring demand. Security & Risk: Ongoing Gaza ceasefire friction and Iran Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keep employers cautious on travel, logistics, and project timelines.

UAE Jobs: The UAE launched a new Job Seeker Visa for foreign graduates, letting eligible skilled applicants enter and search for work without a local sponsor, with 60/90/120-day options and strict university and financial requirements. Qatar Work Access: Qatar introduced a special work permit for certain residents (including family-sponsorship and investors) that removes the application fee and offers a clearer route into the job market. Gaza & Hiring Risk: Israel raised concerns with the US over a Trump-praised Gaza framework after Hamas agreed to a disarmament stage, keeping uncertainty high for regional stability and business planning. Iran Shipping: Iran said Hormuz safe-shipping talks are limited to Oman and not currently with the US, aiming for a temporary route for commercial vessels. Oil & Cost Pressure: Oil prices slid on hopes of an Iran deal, while UK forecourts reported fuel theft surging to nearly £200,000 a day since the Iran crisis began—signals of cost-of-living strain. Regional Business Moves: Reed Smith appointed Mohammed Basama as partner to strengthen its Middle East corporate practice, with a focus on cross-border deals across the Gulf. Payments Innovation: Bahrain fintech INFINIOS went live with Mastercard for stablecoin settlement, pushing faster regulated settlement options in the region.

Saudi-Iran Diplomacy: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan spoke with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, stressing de-escalation, freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea, and diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions. Hormuz Talks: Iran says negotiations with Oman on Strait of Hormuz shipping are in final stages, but warns transit won’t return to pre-war terms. Banking Jobs & Growth: Emirates NBD agreed to buy HSBC Egypt’s retail banking business, taking over branches, ATMs, customers and employees—deal pending approvals, expected to close in H2 2027. AI Hiring Pipeline: Qatar Foundation signed with Scale AI to develop Arabic-focused AI models and run training and mentorship for students and graduates, aiming to create new employment opportunities. Labor Market Pressure: South Korea raised its growth forecast on AI-driven semiconductor exports, but projected fewer job gains—about 150,000 this year. Workforce Safety: Bahrain Airport Company appointed Ahmed Mohamed Janahi as CEO effective 2 Aug 2026; Alba (Bahrain) joined an international lifting-safety training scheme to upskill crane operators. Regional Security & Shipping: Reports say the US and Iran are weighing a 60-day free Hormuz passage and truce extension, as cyberattacks on water systems keep raising fears across the region.

Workplace Rights: Israel’s Knesset approved an amendment to the Annual Leave Law giving bereaved employees a way to use an existing elective leave day for a first-degree family memorial anniversary without employer approval. Public Safety & Travel: US embassies across the Middle East urged Americans to “consider departing” or be ready to leave amid “unforeseen escalation,” warning of flight cancellations and airspace closures. Labor & Remote Work: Egypt’s Cabinet approved continuing remote work on Sundays during August to cut energy use and spending, with flexible implementation and minimum on-site staffing for essential sectors. Immigration & Enforcement: Saudi Arabia arrested 14,154 people in a week-long crackdown on residency, labor and border violations, with thousands referred for travel documents and deportations underway. Gaza Ceasefire Deadlock: Israeli strikes killed at least eight Palestinians in Gaza despite a US-backed 15-point roadmap; Hamas links any weapons handover to an Israeli halt and withdrawal, while Israel demands “genuine disarmament.” Fraud & Recruitment Risks: In Dubai, around 70 Filipino OFWs reported a scam involving fake airline ticket arrangements and requests for large upfront payments before the suspect vanished. Cybersecurity: US federal agencies warned that cyberattacks have disrupted water and wastewater operations in multiple states, with Iran suspected in related targeting of internet-connected control systems.

Gaza Ceasefire/Disarmament Talks: Hamas and Islamic Jihad urged Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza and end hostilities after Hamas said it agreed to the “latest version” of a roadmap tied to disarmament, while Israel’s position on withdrawal remains contested. US Travel Alerts: US embassies across Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE warned Americans to consider departing or be ready for rapid departure amid “unforeseen escalation,” including possible airspace closures and flight disruptions. Kuwait–Iran Tensions: Kuwait condemned repeated Iranian drone attacks, saying its forces intercepted hostile drones targeting facilities and civilian vehicles; the UAE also voiced solidarity with Kuwait. Saudi Enforcement & Jobs Impact: Saudi Arabia arrested 14,154 people in a week-long crackdown on residency, labor and border violations—figures that can quickly affect hiring pipelines and workforce availability. Kirkuk–Turkey Local Governance: Iraq’s Kirkuk joined the Union of Turkish World Municipalities, sparking calls for clarity on commitments and potential investment/job creation. Regional Security & Shipping: Reports highlighted Hormuz and wider shipping disruption risks as conflict escalates, with knock-on effects for costs and employment.

Cybersecurity & Jobs: Investigators are probing whether Iranian hackers targeted water systems in seven U.S. states, including Minnesota—raising HR risks for critical infrastructure firms that rely on secure recruitment and assessment platforms. Middle East Security: Iran is threatening to retaliate against any U.S. or Israeli strikes by targeting energy infrastructure across the region, while shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted and tanker incidents off Oman underline the volatility. Iraq Pay Pressure: Iraq’s government admits difficulty paying salaries on time, a direct hit to public-sector workers and local demand. Gaza Roadmap: A new dispute over Hamas disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal is resurfacing as Trump warns Israel not to obstruct the next phase. Regional Labor Signals: Germany’s unemployment rose above 3 million in July, while Oman unveiled a national employment policy targeting 300,000 jobs for citizens by 2030. HR Tech Breach: Ransomware group CRPx0 claims it stole 1.5GB of Hyundai Turkey recruitment and assessment data, a reminder for employers to tighten hiring-system security.

Immigration & Jobs: The U.S. ended humanitarian protections for about 350,000 Haitians under TPS, triggering layoffs at airports, nursing homes, and schools and raising fears of wider labor shortages across the East Coast and Midwest. Regional Security & Employment: Saudi Arabia said recent strikes in Iraq targeted Iran-backed militias, not Iraqi forces—an escalation that can disrupt regional stability and hiring. Tourism & Hiring: Swiss-Belhotel opened Swiss-Belhotel Nizwa in Oman, aiming to boost visitor numbers and create local jobs. Higher Ed & Worker Rights: Columbia University will launch programming at its Tel Aviv Global Center, while Columbia student workers’ union withdrew a divestment demand—both developments tied to campus labor and political pressure. Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Trump said Hamas agreed to disarm in a staged deal linked to Israeli withdrawal, but Israel’s conditions and implementation hurdles remain unclear. Shipping & Cost Pressure: Middle East shipping stays strained as Iran and Houthi attacks continue, keeping logistics and consumer costs under pressure. Iraq Pilgrimage Boost: Iraq expects up to 22 million pilgrims for Arbaeen, with millions of overseas visitors supporting hotels, transport, retail, and seasonal hiring. Cyber & Critical Services: Investigators are probing whether Iran-linked hackers targeted Minnesota water systems, a reminder that cyber risk can hit civilian infrastructure and jobs.